Will We Get Any Respite From Covid-19 This Month?

Hell No!

That ended sooner than it started. Isn’t it?

My last month’s calculations held strong for almost all the countries, except India.

I had expected a faster rise in the growth rate. India almost continued with the same rate of growth as in the month of May for a better part of June. It started escalating only after the 24th. According to my calculations, it should have escalated at least 8-10 days sooner.

Now, this could be due to lower testing rate, under-reporting of cases or the most unlikely scenario; a miscalculation on my end.

Nevertheless, my calculations weren’t completely wrong. I had expected a minimum of 334,000 cases. It’s just that, I was leaning a bit more towards the 550,000 mark.

Whatever the case be, India recorded just over 400,000 cases in the month of June, taking country’s total to over 585,000.

And the global numbers crossed that 10 million mark quite easily.

Given the current rate of growth and the rate of testing, India will record a minimum of 550,000 cases in the month of July.

Factoring in the environmental changes and human error, the numbers should go up to over 10,50,000. And then if we consider the human error again and the denial strategy, we can cut that figure down to around 750,000 – 850,000.

Having said all of that, I am still of the opinion that if the Indian Government accepts that there is a thing called Covid-19 pandemic going on, comes to terms with the severity of it and boosts up the testing process using better functioning testing kits, at this very moment, India will register just over 300 million cases.

What I am saying is, almost every fourth person in India has it.

And so is the case with the rest of the world.

Either they have it, or had it or will have it.

This thing is not going away anytime soon. In fact, it will get worse in the coming days. It hasn’t even started to reach its peak yet.

This month should see an exponential increase in the number of cases worldwide. Mostly in the Indian Sub-Continent. (Provided they get over their denial strategy and actually start testing)

There is great possibility that the Global numbers might increase by 67-73% this month.

If India increases the testing rate, an increase of 1 million in the number of cases is inevitable by the end of this month.

Also, the number of active cases should cross the 500,000 mark.

P.S. Don’t listen to me though. Feel free to roam around and have fun. Have all the fun while you still can!

10 responses to “Will We Get Any Respite From Covid-19 This Month?”

  1. I don’t know, me and my wife have self-isolated. We have our groceries delivered. And, these I sanitize. I don’t know who to believe, but I have learned to listen to me. Government, can you believe them? Who can you trust? I don’t know any answer to that except that I believe what my intuition tells me above every other outside voice. Who knows when this virus thing will end. I mean, people have family gatherings and then a bunch of them get the virus and someone dies. We are social creatures, some more than others. But, I am careful with my mail and any deliveries. This is not paranoia, yet in a way I hope it is.


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